94L Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 8/30/2009, 2:53 pm
A vigorous high amp tropical wave is beginging to show signs of organization since early this morning. The cloud structure is somewhat elongated from north/south, this appears to be caused by the system being on the western edge of an upper level high centered over the central atlantic.
The wave has been alittle anemic convection wise mostly due to large scale subsidence/dry air surrounding the system and this combined with some southerly shear have put a choke on convection. As low level convergence and a more confined cylonic process slowly establishes near the core, it will be able to convert more thermal dynamic energy around the COC.
As for the track, it appears that until a more defined COC is obtained, we will be following the 850-500MB vortex near 12N-48W. Mid level forcing is in line with a mid-level high as both move in tandom towards a WNW-NW heading, as part of the sub-tropical ridge is building NWard behind the system. Further north a cyclonic gear with the TUTT as the main upper feature will be moving westward, this will likely allow the sub-tropical high to build westward mostly in the low-mid levels across the western atlantic.
Finally, slow strengthening is likely as Erika should evolve from this feature before it gets to the lessor antilles. Thereafter, the more the cyclone strengthens its more likely to be pulled north towards the SW atlantic, as a series of long wave troughs will draw her north, but if she stays further south the western greater antilles and gulf of mexico would be affected by possibly a major cane. |
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94L Analysis - Jake, 8/30/2009, 2:53 pm Post A Reply
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