CaneTalk: Re: Worst-case model

Re: Worst-case model

Posted by JAC on 8/29/2009, 5:44 pm

I know HWRF sometimes exaggerates; but check the 30+C water.

Guidance does show HWFI at Cat5.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/eastpac/intensity_early1.png

In this thread:

Jimena Erupting Over The EPAC - CX, 8/29/2009, 10:49 am

EWRC Over --> Raw T# Heading South - JAC, 8/31/2009, 8:59 am
Very Interesting TRMM Overpass - JAC, 8/31/2009, 8:39 am
Recon this afternoon - JAC, 8/31/2009, 6:34 am
Still just a moderate core temp. - JAC, 8/30/2009, 9:51 pm
2nd EWRC starting up - JAC, 8/30/2009, 9:48 pm
- Re: 2nd EWRC starting up - CX, 8/30/2009, 9:51 pm
  - Re: 2nd EWRC starting up - JAC, 8/30/2009, 10:00 pm
    - Re: 2nd EWRC starting up - CX, 8/30/2009, 10:05 pm
Hi-Reso link - Doorman, 8/30/2009, 12:06 pm
- Re: Hi-Reso link - Chris in Tampa, 8/30/2009, 12:40 pm
- Re: Hi-Reso link - CypressTX, 8/30/2009, 12:37 pm
  - Re: Hi-Reso link - skip_wiley, 8/30/2009, 7:54 pm
Re: Jimena Erupting Over The EPAC - Chris in Tampa, 8/30/2009, 12:03 pm
Major Cloud-Base Expansion - CX, 8/30/2009, 11:18 am
Jimena Still Growing; Cat 4 - CX, 8/30/2009, 10:35 am
Cat3 Mexico Under-the-Gun - JAC, 8/30/2009, 8:28 am
- Re: Cat3 Mexico Under-the-Gun - chucky7777, 8/30/2009, 8:33 am
  - Re: Cat3 Mexico Under-the-Gun - JAC, 8/30/2009, 8:44 am
11pm - Still 90 Kts; Tracking Right of 5pm Guidance - CX, 8/29/2009, 10:47 pm
- About half-way thru EWRC - JAC, 8/29/2009, 11:18 pm
  - Will probably RI in about 12 hrs - JAC, 8/29/2009, 11:27 pm
    - Good call - skip_wiley, 8/30/2009, 11:32 am
      - A 60-knot delta RI - JAC, 8/30/2009, 9:39 pm
        "Delta RI" - CX, 8/30/2009, 9:42 pm
        Re: "Delta RI" - JAC, 8/30/2009, 9:46 pm
        Re: "Delta RI" - CX, 8/30/2009, 9:50 pm
      - Re: Good call - JAC, 8/30/2009, 9:37 pm
Probability of RI at 69% - JAC, 8/29/2009, 10:43 pm
Core Temp - JAC, 8/29/2009, 5:11 pm
- Cold boundary layer over a wide area - JAC, 8/29/2009, 5:14 pm
Just goes to show what overshooting Cu-Nim's can do - JAC, 8/29/2009, 5:02 pm
Eyewall - JAC, 8/29/2009, 4:59 pm
CDO on the ADT Bulls-eye - JAC, 8/29/2009, 4:57 pm
Maybe a problem for Baja - JAC, 8/29/2009, 4:54 pm
- Unadulterated Insanity - JAC, 8/29/2009, 5:23 pm
  - Same for HWRF - JAC, 8/29/2009, 5:27 pm
    - Worst-case model - JAC, 8/29/2009, 5:40 pm
      - Re: Worst-case model - CX, 8/29/2009, 5:41 pm
        Re: Worst-case model - JAC, 8/29/2009, 5:44 pm
- Re: Maybe a problem for Baja - JAC, 8/29/2009, 5:20 pm
Now Cat2 - JAC, 8/29/2009, 4:48 pm
- Re: Now Cat2 - CX, 8/29/2009, 5:48 pm
  - Re: Now Cat2 - JAC, 8/29/2009, 5:53 pm
    - Re: Now Cat2 - CX, 8/29/2009, 5:56 pm
      - Re: Now Cat2 - chucky7777, 8/29/2009, 6:11 pm
      - MIMIC-TPW - JAC, 8/29/2009, 6:01 pm
        Re: MIMIC-TPW - CX, 8/29/2009, 6:07 pm
11am EST Discussion - CX, 8/29/2009, 10:54 am
- Re: 11am EST Discussion - chucky7777, 8/29/2009, 11:18 am
Images - CX, 8/29/2009, 10:51 am

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