| Tropical Storm Danny Still Disorganized Last Update: 27-AUG-2009 7:41pm EDT Tropical Storm Danny remains poorly organized. As of 8:00 PM EDT Danny was located near 28.0 north, 73.3 west. This is 515 miles south southeast of Hatteras North Carolina. Danny is drifting to the north at 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend north and east of the storm by about 205 statute miles. The central pressure in Danny is 1008 millibars or 29.77 inches. A tropical storm watch is in effect from Cape Look out to Duck North Carolina which encompasses most of the Outer Banks. This watch also includes Ablemarle and Pamlico Sounds. Danny has moved farther away from a weak upper-level low southwest of Hispaniola. However, another upper level disturbance has dropped southward just off the coast of North Carolina blocking the movement. This feature will lift out to the northeast later tonight allowing a weak upper level ridge to build to the north of Danny. The Bermuda ridge should then nudge the storm to the northwest. Another upper level system over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move eastward and bring a southwest steering flow over Danny tomorrow night and during Saturday. This will cause the storm to move more to the north then northeast. A large and stronger upper level trough moving into the Great Lakes this weekend will increase that southwest wind flow Saturday night and Sunday. This will cause Danny to turn more to the northeast. The timing of this turn will determine how close Danny comes to the southeast coast of New England. Danny weakened during Thursday afternoon as a result of drier and more stable air to the northwest and west of the center fed southward by this upper level disturbance off the North Carolina coast. As this feature moves northeast and away and the upper level ridge builds north of Danny the storm should slowly intensify during late tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. However, it now appears as if the storm will not have an opportunity to become a hurricane until later Saturday just before it moves over colder water. So, Danny might fall short of becoming a hurricane. Even if it does it will be for only a short period of time. Danny should start to lose tropical characteristics as it makes its closest approach to the coast of New England Saturday night and should transition to a non tropical storm as it moves across Nova Scotia on Sunday. Danny will pass about 100 miles east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina Friday night. The storm will pass about 140 miles east of Atlantic City New Jersey early Saturday afternoon and about 75 miles east of Montauk Point Long Island late Saturday or Saturday evening. Our current track forecast brings the center of Danny 30 to 50 miles east of Nantucket and Cape Cod Massachusetts Saturday night. As far as impacts, Danny will stay far enough east of the Bahamas to keep any direct effects away from those islands. However, as the storm intensifies it will create larger swells that should propagate toward the east and north-facing beaches tonight and Friday. That will lead to higher than normal and perhaps dangerous surf. The surf will increase and become more dangerous along the Florida east coast during Friday. This rough and potentially dangerous surf will expand up the east coast of the United States Friday and over the weekend. Rain bands and tropical storm force wind gusts will affect the Outer Banks of North Carolina to the Virginia Capes during Friday night into Saturday morning. The exact track Danny takes will determine impacts farther north from the Virginia and Delaware coast north to the New England coast Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Impacts from the Delaware coast to the New Jersey coast will be minimal with maybe a gusty shower or two and some chance for a wind gust to near tropical storm force. Impacts over coastal southeast New England and eastern Long Island could include squally rainfall and tropical storm force winds mostly in gusts force if Danny tracks close to the coast. |