Aussies improve t-storm forecasts by stdying typhoons
Posted by
skip_wiley on 8/27/2009, 7:29 pm
Not sure if this new or not but interesting...Wish I had a subscription to read the paper
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17681-nowcasts-give-thunderstorm-early-warning.html
Chasing thunderstorms just got easier. A new system for predicting where they will go next will soon be in use in Australia, after outperforming existing methods. It will help forecasters decide whether to give public warnings of impending storms.
The technique, called Thunderstorm Environment Strike Probability Algorithm (THESPA), produces "nowcasts" for up to 1 hour ahead. It was developed by a team led by Sandy Dance at the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research.
THESPA borrows an idea used to predict the movements of cyclones - much bigger weather systems that include hurricanes and typhoons. It assigns a strike probability - the chance that a particular location will be hit by a storm in a given period.
"The concept of a strike probability is new for thunderstorms," says Dance.
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Aussies improve t-storm forecasts by stdying typhoons - skip_wiley, 8/27/2009, 7:29 pm Post A Reply
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