Local NWS Discussion
Posted by
Cape_Fear_NC on 8/26/2009, 4:57 am
No doubt all of us on the East Coast will be checking in to see our Local Meteorologist's Discussion (linked to via our local NWS office from the NOAA website:
I note my local NWS office has changed their tune from the GFS-based "system will pass WELL offshore" to now saying "system will pass JUST offshore." Below is a part of our local outlook:
.SHORT TERM/THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3AM WEDNESDAY...
WEST ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST WEAKLY ON THURSDAY
TO THE NORTH OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING BY BAHAMAS. ONE
LAST RAIN-FREE DAY EXPECTED WITH TEMPS ABV CLIMO. UPPER LOW ALONG
GULF COAST MAY BRING MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN THE MID LVLS ESP
OVER SRN ZONES. MUCH OF THE DETAILS OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HINGE
ON THE STILL UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM 350 MILES
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING AGREEMENT
IN TRACK ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NC BUT UNTIL AN ACTUAL CENTER
DEVELOPS THIS COULD STILL SHIFT CONSIDERABLY EAST OR WEST. ANOTHER
NAGGING ISSUE IS THAT EVEN IF THE OBX SOLN DOES COME TO PASS THERE
MAY REMAIN ENOUGH DRY AIR ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO PRECLUDE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL OVER LAND LOCALLY. HAVE GRAVITATED TOWARDS THE
MORE FAVORED NAM-BASED MOS POPS AND TEMPS OVER THE GFS WHICH IS
CURRENTLY TOO FAR OFFSHORE WITH THE TRACK AND THUS TOO WARM AND DRY.
Tim in NC
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