Re: LLC closing off at 19.5N 63.5W
Posted by Old Style on 8/25/2009, 11:58 am
Tim... The 12Z GFS is coming in nearly identical to the 6Z GFS. The initialization of the center down to the northeast of Puerto Rico seems to be accurate. For a tropical cyclone to develop, you would want the low level center to form away (usually to the east or southeast) from the hostile conditions of the (cold core)upper level low that spawned the tropical cyclone. Last night's 0Z Euro, had the low level center too far north (in my opinion) in the northern Bahamas. That would be near the cold core upper level low center, and would be a tough place for a tropical cyclone to form. (Although stranger things have happened) With the Euro initializing the tropical cyclone over the northern Bahamas, it has very little room to recurve, and comes ashore near your house (Wilmington,NC). The GFS, with the center northeast of PR, has more time to recurve, and therefore miss your house. The GFS appears to be correct in my opinion. But as we say in meteorology... "We'll see"  
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92L Could Spinup Late Today or Early Wednesday. - JAC, 8/25/2009, 6:58 am
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