Front about mid IL
Posted by JAC on 8/20/2009, 2:04 pm
 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1936 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IND...SERN LOWER MI...OH...NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 201542Z - 201745Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION NEXT FEW HOURS. DAMAGING WIND APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM WRN OH SWWD THROUGH CNTRL KY. A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EXTENDS FROM SERN LOWER MID INTO NERN IND. THE WARM SECTOR IN THIS REGION IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. MORNING RAOB DATA FROM WILMINGTON OH SHOWED WARM AIR ALOFT WITH -6 TO -7C AT 500 MB WHICH IS LIMITING 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES TO AOB 6 C/KM. DESTABILIZATION WILL BE FURTHER MITIGATED OR SLOWED TO SOME DEGREE BY AREAS OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS. HOWEVER...MODEST WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WEAK CAP EVIDENT ON THE MORNING RAOB DATA...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN WARM SECTOR AND ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SWLY 40-45 KT BULK SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS. ..DIAL.. 08/20/2009 |
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In this thread:
12Z GFS Flip Flops Back - Cape_Fear_NC, 8/20/2009, 12:28 pm
- No cutoff low on SREF - JAC, 8/20/2009, 2:54 pm
- Closest CONUS approach - JAC, 8/20/2009, 2:55 pm
- 12Z CMC - JAC, 8/20/2009, 2:08 pm
- Cut-off Low shift to the SW - JAC, 8/20/2009, 12:41 pm
- Re: 12Z GFS Flip Flops Back - wfsouza, 8/20/2009, 12:32 pm
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