Bill Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 8/19/2009, 1:05 pm
Bill is a massive atlantic tropical cyclone. The storm covers several hundred miles of ocean. However, the thermal dynamic environment will gradually become less favorable after 24hrs. Bill will be crossing an area between 20-25 lat which has the highest OHC on his track. Therefore, some slight strengthening should occur during this period, but increase SW shear and lower OHC north of 25 lat will hinder strengthening.
On latest WV loops Bill's east quad outflow is restricted as both ULL's are creating W-SW shear from the mid-upper levels or 500-200mbs. This flow is also forcing a more NW heading 300-305 degrees. In addition, deep layer dry air has continued to be ingested by the large circulation mostly on the west/north. This pattern should draw him more poleward. Moreover, mid to upper level shear currently is being enhanced by the dislocation of the upper level high to his west further acting to disrupt his outflow giving it the stretched south/north look to the cirrus canopy.
Conclusion, Bill should maintain hurricane strength for quite sometime as inner core fluctions will hinder strengthening, as completions of EWRC will not be as effective in the northern latitudes or north of 32N. The core should remain away from the east coast.
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Bill Analysis - Jake, 8/19/2009, 1:05 pm- dry air - BobbiStorm, 8/19/2009, 1:15 pm
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