Re: Bill - Waiting for the Turn
Posted by Cape_Fear_NC on 8/18/2009, 7:27 pm
I agree with you on the physics point. I remember closely tracking Hugo years ago and his recurvature was like that of a tractor-trailer rounding a NASCAR curve (running the course in the opposite direction of course.)

Scraping the outer wall of the track, Hugo plowed into southern South Carolina - when the original expectation was a much sharper turn through extreme eastern North Carolina then north into Virginia and Maryland.

Perhaps it was just a forecasting error of the time or possibly it was his great mass struggling to make the turn - I can't really say for sure; but I remember watching Hugo make the turn and sensing something was "wrong" all the way.

That said, I don't see much a similar problem this time because Bill's expected recurvature is hundreds of miles farther out than Hugo's originally was. And Bill has already started a very gradual turn as it is.

I doubt Bill will get anywhere near the coast but seas on the Mid-Atlantic will of course be up. My guess would be a 6 foot surf with some 8 footers thrown in for good measure. (Add 2 feet for the outermost capes.) Offshore breezes on the coast will make for a beautiful smooth surf too!

Hopefully we'll get some pics posted here this weekend.

Tim






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Bill - Waiting for the Turn - ricksterpr, 8/18/2009, 8:51 am
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