Key players in the coming Billfish Tournament
Posted by
Jackstraw on 8/17/2009, 10:37 pm
These are just my very uneducated thoughts on what's going on with Bill. From Bobbis loop he is now past the shortwave thats been tugging on him and may have sanded the ridge a little. I think you may see a little more west to him for the next 12-24 or so hours. 2 days ago The models were counting on this shortwave to hang around a little longer, until Tuesday or Wed. The models also had this feature deeper than it was. Now they have forming,as shown on the200mb Hi Res HWRF and the18Z 300mb GFS what will end up being another shortwave currently around 60W 35N, and a cutoff low which looks to be sliding off of the NC coast to intially turn Bill NW. From the NW Atlantic WV loop you can see this scenario beginning to play out. Both of those models have this feature down below 30N by Wed. which would erode the ridge enough to let him turn... then be a sitting duck for the trough forecast later in the week. However if I've been timing these models right much of this scenario is moving about 24 hours faster than the forecast which could mean the ridge is hanging a little tougher. Also the next set of shortwaves are very important to to the current forecast track. If they don't dive far enough south they are going to have less of an influence on him and the ridge is going to weaken slower letting him ride WNW a little farther before the big trough gets him.
The Average overall model errors so far on this storm have been about 75 miles(at)24 hours, 125 miles(at) 48 hours and 200miles(at)72hours according to the rough data from the experimental Methaz.org website.
These are all big IF's and is why any thing over 3 days has to be taken with a grain of salt. I still think there is more than a 50% that the NHC track will pan out and of course that is the one that counts. But once again dont breathe easy just because they've had it fishing in the last 2 days of runs, there is still a lot that can happen by Saturday. |
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Key players in the coming Billfish Tournament - Jackstraw, 8/17/2009, 10:37 pm Post A Reply
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