Re: Ana ?? toast?? regeneration ?? or Danny??
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/17/2009, 7:58 pm
Going back to Ivan, when it made its great loop and the NHC was split over whether to call it something new or attach his old name back, they could follow the circulation all the way around. With Katrina in its early stages as a depression, it combined with a wave and a previous depression and was numbered differently because they couldn't tell what was what. With Ana, I'm not sure. If it has completely degenerated into a wave and does not combine into something else, will it get the same name if it redevelops? Maybe, but I'm not sure. It would not if it combined with something else and they could not follow the original circulation of Ana into it. But I'm not totally sure if it redevelops on its own from its own remnants if those remnants were an open wave. If it keeps the same broad area of low pressure and it can be followed well enough to know that was previously Ana, it seems like it would still be Ana.
Time machine back to 2007...
"AT THIS POINT...I AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE IF KAREN IS GOING TO
REGENERATE OR NOT. MODELS HAVE THE LUXURY OF GOING BACK AND FORTH
IN STRENGTHENING OR WEAKENING KAREN IN EACH RUN...BUT I DON'T. THE
BEST WE CAN DO IS TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM CLOSELY...AND IF IT COMES
BACK...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...REINITIATE ADVISORIES.
FOR NOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON KAREN."
From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/al12/al122007.discus.020.shtml?
And then 12 days later TD15 formed...
"IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY FROM KAREN'S
REMNANTS HAS PLAYED A ROLE IN THE GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...THE EVIDENCE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO ATTACH THAT NAME TO
THIS SYSTEM."
From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/al15/al152007.discus.001.shtml?
I'm just not sure though about if something loses its circulation if the remnants could then later form into another circulation and have the same name. Then we also get into the different levels of the atmosphere. The above says "LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY", but how low level?
Ana does seems to have a very slight spin at maybe mid levels, but hard to tell. It is not well defined. Both the spin that is there is south of the islands around the southern most convection.
Sat:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr.html
Radar:
http://www.onamet.gov.do/?s=web&p=1002 |
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8/17/2009, 4:55 pm Post A Reply
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