Ana and the models ....
Posted by
LawKat on 8/15/2009, 11:47 am
The models did spread out a little bit on the last run, but most agree that the ridge breakdown either won't occur or that Ana will be too weak to move poleward and be drawn northward any appreciable distance.
The models are bee-lining Ana straight into Florida and ramming it down the throat of South Florida specifically.
The dry air is thick, but as Jim stated, and as I read last night, Andrew had a very tough time with dry air in this area.
I think Ana is going to survive, based on the fact that the center failed to dissipate in more hostile conditions yesterday, and even though not deep, has enough spin and forward speed to assist the Coriolis effect in not spinning down to an open wave.
Shortly, within 24 hours or so, Ana will move under the Bermuda high and this steering current should be with her through her life span. No troughs are forecast to come through and break it down and no ULLs are forecast to push, or pull her off the course that the ridge will steer her in.
Water temps and an anti-cyclone overhead, will assist where shear and dry air fails Ana.
Current thinking, Ana is going to be near the Florida coast (Fort Lauderdale or south of there) by Wednesday, as a minimal hurricane. After that, Ana makes entry into the GOMEX. Past there, it's wide open, dependent on where the edge of the ridge is at that point. |
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Ana and the models .... - LawKat, 8/15/2009, 11:47 am Post A Reply
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