Ana Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 8/15/2009, 10:52 am
The disturbance restrengthened over night, as strong convection fired during the diurnal convective max, slight increase in SST and a slightly more favorable environment.
However,her structure is becoming more elongated as SW shear is increasing from the ULL to her NW, continued ingestion of dry table air and restricted outflow in the eastern quad caused by soon to be TD-3 and become the main cyclone. In fact the LLC has become exposed on the western edge of the convection. Any increase in forward speed will expedite her doom.
Conclusion, she should gradually weaken into a remnant tropical low later today or tomorrow. The diurnal pulse combined with interaction with the ULL should atleast maintain convection, especially if she holds a good 850mb vort max over 28c SST.. |
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Ana Analysis - Jake, 8/15/2009, 10:52 am Post A Reply
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