An electrics discussion of 90L
Posted by
Mike_Doran on 8/13/2009, 9:57 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIyxkZod2cM
Nice country song.
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The sun has been real quiet. There have been 34 days in a row without a spot. The past years have been as quiet that way as 1912 and 1913, and 1914 followed as the quiet year on record. So I think you have to start there. Now once there is that out of the way, you still can have coronal holes bringing conditions that might favor formation. We had a pretty good coronol hole associaed with Felicia and the typhoon in the WPAC. That is gone now, but we had some thunderstorm activity over Africa IMHO associated with it, and the first couple that rolled off the African coast brought us TDII which cleared a lot of dry air out, and now 90L. There was an unusual burst of xray activity out of no where that helped TDII survive the shear, relatively cool SSTs, and dry air that surrounded it, and it sent a lot of tropical moisture to its east where what was to become 90L was coming off the African coast. Then that same xray activity ended and there was much more of an ICTZ to couple and less conductivity in the upper atmosphere to do it, and TDII was still in a lot of dry air with a lot of shear. So it's a naked swirl now. But in the past couple of hours the xray activity has started up again, and this clearly will benefit 90L.
Despite solar conditions, I think that 90L has a good chance of becoming the season's first named storm. I don't think we will have a year like 1914 in the Atlantic again because CO2 from fossil fuels is a conductivity variable and it's largest influence is right now during peak global lightning. Africa is heavily struck right now, and that makes this climate changing electrical element significant right now. So despite poor and unfavorable solar conditions, I think we will still get some storms this year. I was pretty uncertain about what was going to happen at the start of the season, but I do think that climate change will overcome poor space weather now, to some degree. It's going to be a quiet season but not a totally dead season.
BTW those who have harped El Nino the SOI index is climbing again and is near zero. Regionally, this is pretty good for the Atlantic and may be as good as it gets for a storm to form. |
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An electrics discussion of 90L - Mike_Doran, 8/13/2009, 9:57 am Post A Reply
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