Deep Breath Time ...
Posted by
LawKat on 8/12/2009, 3:15 pm
TD 2 and what looks like the NHC will soon crown TD3 are still 3000+ miles from most of the U.S., and more than 1500+ miles from the Caribbean. One is only a depression, and one is nothing at this moment.
The models picked up on Ivan like this, very far out in 2004, as I recall, and ran him out to sea, and then up the east coast, and the trending west continues.
If there is one thing that looks similar to past seasons, it's the inhibitions of these systems, causing further west movement, and eventual landfall certainties.
TD2 is still rolling west, and isn't deepening enough to get a poleward pull or push.
As it is though, we are still 7-8 solid days from any kind of idea of what the future holds, and even that will be speculation.
Models will be models, but I am more mindful of past recent history being an indicator. Systems have stayed weak and west, until they shook off African dust and easterly shear. A lot of the time, they were at, near, or just past 60W. (See Doorman's recent post on this stat).
That's all I am saying. |
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Deep Breath Time ... - LawKat, 8/12/2009, 3:15 pm
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