Honolulu NWS - Possible TD or TS
Posted by
JAC on 8/6/2009, 8:26 am
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED AUG 5 2009
THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW
MOVING TO A POSITION JUST NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS BY FRIDAY.
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE STATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS NOT VERY STRONG AND WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECTED...THERE MAY ONLY BE A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF
THE TRADE WIND INVERSION ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WHILE THE LOW ALOFT
IS NEARBY...THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN END OF STATE. THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A SMALL AMOUNT THIS WEEKEND...WITH MOST
SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS OF THE STATE.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MAJOR
HURRICANE FELICIA...CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 1650 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF HILO...AND TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE...WHICH IS AROUND
1950 MILES EAST OF HILO. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF FELICIA...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF...AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTING...THE
STATE AS A TROPICAL STORM OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IF SO...FELECIA
MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE STATE
AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST INDICATES A
WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WILL NOT PLAY ANY ROLE IN ISLAND
WEATHER. THE PRESENCE OF THESE TROPICAL CYCLONES SERVES AS A
REMINDER TO ALWAYS HAVE A HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLAN IN PLACE
DURING THE OFFICIAL CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
CONTINUES THROUGH NOVEMBER 30.
FOR DETAILED INFORMATION ON HURRICANE FELICIA...PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN
MIAMI...FLORIDA. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...
HAWAII IS EXPECTED TO ASSUME FORECAST RESPONSIBILITY FOR FELICIA
EARLY SATURDAY.
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In this thread:
Felicia - SSTs & Shear will rule. Strong ULL NE of HI -
JAC,
8/6/2009, 8:21 am- About 96 Hrs Out - JAC, 8/7/2009, 7:52 am
- Annular? - Anung Mwka, 8/6/2009, 6:04 pm
- Gotta lota Theta-E behind her - JAC, 8/6/2009, 12:07 pm
- Will hit the heavy shear in 72 hrs - JAC, 8/6/2009, 11:57 am
- Eyewall could be firing another hot-tower - JAC, 8/6/2009, 10:48 am
- A very efficient cyclone - JAC, 8/6/2009, 9:03 am
- At least Kilauea is calm - JAC, 8/6/2009, 8:36 am
- Honolulu NWS - Possible TD or TS - JAC, 8/6/2009, 8:26 am
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