Update
Posted by Mike_Doran on 8/5/2009, 2:04 pm
The forecast for elevated solar winds is still the 7th and those winds are slowly rising.  But there was much higher xray activity and the SOI index hasn't fallen at all, staying at minus 8.  There was a lot of lightning in the GOM along a line extending across Florida.  The Americas clearly have, regionally, favorable electrical conditions.  And we do have two storms in the EPAC.

As for the Atlantic I would estimate that if RI doesn't occur in the next 24 hours associated with heightened xray actvitiy it is unlikely to occur going forward from there.  We are on our 25th day of no sunspots, and globally activity continues to be suppressed.  At the same time we are approaching the time of year when peak lightning occurs and when the influences of human activity are maximized from an electrics standpoint.  It's going to be intereting which wins--suppression from the sun or increases in conductivity from higher CO2 levels and riperian changes.
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Electrics discussion of E and F storms in EPAC - Mike_Doran, 8/4/2009, 12:47 pm
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