FELICIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY
Posted by JAC on 8/5/2009, 7:07 am
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
200 AM PDT WED AUG 05 2009

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.2 WEST OR ABOUT
1365 MILES...2200 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  FELICIA
IS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
FELICIA WILL LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY ONCE FELICIA MOVES OVER COLDER
WATER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.4N 128.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
200 AM PDT WED AUG 05 2009

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE
T4.5 AND T4.0...RESPECTIVELY...BUT SINCE THAT TIME THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE.  THE EYE HAS NOW PERSISTED
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND CONTINUES TO WARM WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
LOCATED IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLES.  AN ANALYSIS
WOULD NOW YIELD A AVERAGE DATA T-NUMBER OF 5.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING RAISED TO 90 KT.

NOW THAT FELICIA IS A DEEPER SYSTEM...IT IS BEING PULLED A LITTLE
MORE TO THE NORTH BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OFF
THE U.S. WEST COAST.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10...AND LITTLE
CHANGE TO THIS HEADING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...
TWO FACTORS WILL CAUSE FELICIA TO TURN TO THE WEST.  FIRST...THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND WILL BE
REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF HAWAII.
SECOND...FELICIA WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING BY THAT TIME AND WILL BE
INFLUENCED MORE STRONGLY BY THE LOWER-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.  THERE
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND FELICIA REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING.  THE MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW NEAR CALIFORNIA IS
INDUCING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF FELICIA...AND IT APPEARS
THAT AN OUTFLOW JET MAY BE FORMING.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  THE
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST PUTS FELICIA OVER 24-25
DEGREES CELSIUS WATER AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THIS BY SHOWING FASTER WEAKENING
THAN WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IF FELICIA STAYS A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/0900Z 13.4N 128.2W    90 KT
12HR VT     05/1800Z 14.1N 129.5W   100 KT
24HR VT     06/0600Z 15.1N 131.2W   105 KT
36HR VT     06/1800Z 16.1N 132.8W   100 KT
48HR VT     07/0600Z 17.1N 134.6W    90 KT
72HR VT     08/0600Z 18.5N 139.0W    75 KT
96HR VT     09/0600Z 19.0N 144.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     10/0600Z 19.0N 150.0W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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FELICIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY - JAC, 8/5/2009, 7:07 am
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