UL Forecast
Posted by JAC on 8/2/2009, 8:35 am
1) The CMC Shear Forecast shows UL isotachs that indicate where the CA-Coast ULL and N-MX ULH are.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009080200&field=850-200mb+Shear&hour=Animation

It looks like they continue to be stationary until the end of the week.

At that time, the ULL will move NE into CONUS and dissipate.

That in turn will dissipate the N-MX ULH which indicates the up-draft zone of the Atlantic Walker Cell.

Sure enough, an anti-cyclone will form off the Africa coast at the down-draft zone or end of the Walker cell.

That will eliminate the subsidence in the east Atlantic and possibly open the door for a wave to develop.


2) Currently, GFS is showing development of a deep warm core in the east Atlantic with genesis Tuesday.

No other models are on board including CMC.

Given GFS's track record this year with African waves, this development could be a low chance.


3) The Sahara air pressure for the last few days have been dropping.  

I have seen Lows drop down to 1006mb.


4) So in conclusion , if SAL is low this weekend, it could be we could see a temporary let up in the effects of El Nino and a wave my develop.



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A window of opportunity next weekend? - JAC, 7/31/2009, 10:29 am
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