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Large-Amp African Wave consolidating. Models getting on-board.
Posted by JAC on 7/30/2009, 7:28 am
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Posted by JAC on 7/30/2009, 7:28 am
MIMIC-TPW is showing the top of the African Wave fracturing off and the southern reminants are consolidating. Given the surface winds in the area; I give this an excellent chance that it will begin a roll. LL vorticity has also decreased in area which could signal a more rapid development. Larger areas are usually slow to consolidate. Stratiform precip has been firing for a good 48 hrs in an area to the SW of the LLC; i.e. in a box bounded by 12N, 8N, 40W, 30W. It also has shown some moderate convection firing as well during the latest early-morning diurnal-max. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html SAL has been washed out in this area. UL is still a bit puzzeling to me. There is an UL high over it with what looks like convergence. Don't know if this could be some mid to upper level subsidence. Need it watch if this will switch out to an anti-cyclone. CMC and GFS are showing a border-line warm-core spinning up later today with a push west. I am going to disagree with the models a bit here and say this will start out as a warm core given the fact theta-e air is high and concentrating in the boundary layer in this area.        |
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Large-Amp African Wave consolidating. Models getting on-board. - JAC, 7/30/2009, 7:28 am
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